What the centrists have wrought
I’m still working on the numbers, but I’ve gotten a fair number of requests for comment on the Senate version of the stimulus.
The short answer: to appease the centrists, a plan that was already too small and too focused on ineffective tax cuts has been made significantly smaller, and even more focused on tax cuts.
According to the CBO’s estimates, we’re facing an output shortfall of almost 14% of GDP over the next two years, or around $2 trillion. Others, such as Goldman Sachs, are even more pessimistic. So the original $800 billion plan was too small, especially because a substantial share consisted of tax cuts that probably would have added little to demand. The plan should have been at least 50% larger.
Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out.
My first cut says that the changes to the Senate bill will ensure that we have at least 600,000 fewer Americans employed over the next two years.
The real question now is whether Obama will be able to come back for more once it’s clear that the plan is way inadequate. My guess is no. This is really, really bad.
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I couldn't agree with Krugman more. Everything I hear regarding compromises to stimulus sound like they are ruining the nature of the bill. More tax cuts, less essential programs. The fact is, the democrats only need 1 fucking republican to vote for this...and they shouldn't have to bend over and destroy the stimulus bill in order for this to pass.
2 comments:
I was just gonna come post the new Krugman op-ed on this. This sucks, and its Obama's fault. He put bipartisanship ahead of getting best plan passed for the economy. It's basic macro 101, tax cuts are much less effective than federal spending in jump starting an economy, since only a fraction of the tax cuts are spent, especially in times of a deep recession. People are gonna put that money in a bank, making the stimulas a waste.
yup, all the economists are saying the same thing. The ATM tax patch seems bunk.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/09/the-800-billion-gamble-ec_n_165146.html
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